Student-led academic platform of the LL.M. in Sustainable Development of the University of Milan
24.07.2018
The World Bank: Internal climate migrants are rapidly becoming the human face of climate change
In recent times, cross-border migration and its implications for host countries have led political and public discourse agenda. But there is increasing recognition that far more people are migrating within their own countries than across borders. Climate change has emerged as a potent driver of internal migration.
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Against this background, the World Bank report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration provides the analytical insights into the recent phenomenon of climate migration. The Report projects forward to 2050 for three regions — Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America – and calls for the urgent climate and development action to prevent 140 million internal climate migrants by 2050. This Report is the first of its kind that focuses "on slow-onset climate impacts (water stress, crop failure, sea level rise) rather than rapid natural disasters such as floods and hurricanes, where the bond between the event and the displacement of people is the straightforward one.
Integral climate migration can have significant effects on the resilience of people and sustainability of the communities. It needs to be managed carefully and should be addressed within the development and climate change adaptation frameworks since climate change will hit poorer countries and communities disproportionately.
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The Report suggests to take a long-term, anticipatory approach to planning internal migration, that factores climate migrants in to overall growth and development strategies (including through skills training and job creation programs).
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The forecast builds on the sceario approach, that "provides policymakers with a way to better understand and plan for the likely movement of people within their countries—over time and across different geographies—due to climate change impacts".
Each of three scenarios factors in development paths and the level of the GHGs emissions: (i) the reference “pessimistic” scenario (high GHG emissions combined with unequal development pathways); (ii) “more inclusive development” (similarly high GHG emissions but with improved development pathways); and (iii) “more climate-friendly” (lower global emissions combined with unequal development).
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According to the World Bank, internal climate migration doesn’t have to be a crisis. Taking an action including through the policies could help reducing the number of people being forced to move in distress. The Report provides a number of the policy recommendations such as: (i) integrating climate migration into national development plans and "all facets of policy" to facilitate action at each phase of migration (before, during, and after moving); (ii) involving a variety of the stakeholders (civil society, private actors, international organizations) in building policy frameworks and capacity; (iii) investing in evidence-based research and collecting data related to climate change impacts.
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